Basic Cognition and 3 Concept of Futures

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What are futures?

Futures contract, referred to as futures, is a way of trading across time. By signing the contract, the buyer and the seller agree to deliver the specified quantity of spot goods according to the specified time, price and other transaction conditions. Usually, futures are concentrated in futures exchanges and traded in standardized contracts, but some futures contracts can also be traded through counter transactions, called over-the-counter contracts.

Futures are a kind of derivative instruments. According to the type of spot subject matter, futures can be divided into two categories: commodity futures and financial futures.

Among the futures traders, arbitrageurs lock in profits and costs by buying and selling futures, and reduce the risk of price fluctuations brought about by time.

 Speculators take more risks through futures trading, looking for opportunities to make profits in price fluctuations.

Many futures markets have developed from forward contracts, which refer to one-to-one contracts signed individually over time, and the transaction details are agreed upon by the buyer and the seller.

Futures Margin Calculation

Futures is a margin trading system. When investing in futures, buyers and sellers must pay a certain percentage of the total value of the contract, which is called futures margin. The purpose of futures margin is to serve as a guarantee for future performance or as a principal for repaying losses. At the same time, it also allows operators to control a large number of commodity positions with a small amount of funds. It also makes futures a high-risk "small to big" through the principle of leverage. investment vehicle. There are two types of margin: original margin and maintenance margin:

(1)Initial Margin
It is the margin that investors must have when they enter the market. The amount depends on the different commodities. There are different original margins (generally about 5% to 15% of the total contract value), and the margin will also change with the change of the contract price.

 (2)Maintenance Margin
The maintenance margin is usually 70% to 80% of the original margin. If the balance in the customer's margin account after daily calculation of floating profit and loss is lower than the original margin, the futures broker will notify the customer to pay the margin (Margin Call) to the original margin level, the client is obliged to make up the difference within the specified time, otherwise the broker has the right to close the futures position on behalf of the client.

Types of futures

Futures Market Description
Since the evolution of trading, it has become more and more prosperous, and commodity contracts have become more and more diverse. Futures contracts can be roughly divided into two categories: commodity futures and financial futures. The common futures contracts in the market are roughly as follows:

A、commodity futures. This type of contract is mainly based on traditional bulk materials, and it is the earliest contract commodity developed in the futures market.

  1. Agricultural futures: such as grains, soybeans, cotton, pigs, etc. The main trading markets are the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE).
  2. Metal futures: such as gold and silver for precious metals, copper and aluminum for industrial metals, etc. The main trading markets are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the London Metal Exchange (LME) and so on.
  3. Energy futures: This type of contract is mainly oil, and there are also petroleum products such as fuel oil and gasoline. The main trading markets are the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the British International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), etc.
  4. Soft futures: There are two types of futures contracts, coffee and cocoa, which are special planted commodities. The main trading markets are coffee, sugar and cocoa exchange (CSCE) and London commodity exchange (LCE).

B、financial futures. Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods Conference in the 1970s, the huge fluctuations in international exchange rates and interest rates have prompted the birth of foreign exchange futures contracts. Since then, financial futures have developed rapidly and have become the largest contract in futures trading. The main financial futures contracts are as follows:

  1. Foreign exchange futures contract: The foreign exchange futures contract is similar to the bank's far exchange market, except that the foreign exchange futures has a standard contract and is conducted in a centralized trading manner. The more active foreign exchange futures contracts include British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, German mark, Swiss franc and so on.
  2. Short-term interest rate futures contracts: the most common are Eurodollars and US Treasury bills.
  3. Long-term interest rate futures contracts: Long-term interest rate futures are based on U.S. medium-term Treasury bonds (T-Note) and long-term Treasury bonds (T-Bond).
  4. Stock price index futures contract: The stock price index futures contract does not require the actual delivery of the stocks included in the index, and is settled in cash on the maturity date, and the amount is determined according to the value of the stock price index in the spot market. Popular commodities include S&P 500, Nikkei 225 and Morgan Taiwan Index, etc.


At present, the world's major financial commodity exchanges are Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX), London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE), etc.

Basic Cognition and 3 Concept of Futures

Basic Cognition and 3 Concept of Futures

Questions and Answers about Futures:

1. What is a futures contract?

A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a specific quantity of an asset at a predetermined price and time in the future. It's like a promise to trade at a set price later, regardless of the current market value.

2. What are the different types of futures contracts?

There are two main types:

  • Commodity futures: Based on physical commodities like agricultural products (grains, soybeans), metals (gold, copper), energy sources (oil), and softer commodities (coffee, cocoa).
  • Financial futures: Based on financial instruments like foreign currencies, interest rates, and stock market indices.

3. Why do people trade futures?

People trade futures for various reasons:

  • Hedging: Lock in future prices and reduce risk from price fluctuations.
  • Speculation: Profit from price movements by buying low and selling high.
  • Arbitrage: Exploit price differences between different markets.

4. What is margin in futures trading?

Futures use a margin system, where traders only need to deposit a portion of the contract value (e.g., 5-15%). This leverage amplifies both profits and losses.

  • Initial margin: Required to enter a position.
  • Maintenance margin: Minimum level to maintain the position, otherwise a margin call occurs.

5. What are the risks of futures trading?

Futures are high-risk due to leverage, price volatility, and margin calls. Losses can exceed your initial investment.

6. Where are futures traded?

Futures are traded on specialized exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX).

7. What are some examples of popular futures contracts?

  • Commodity: Crude oil, gold, corn, soybeans.
  • Financial: Eurodollars, Treasury bonds, S&P 500 index.

8. What should I know before trading futures?

Carefully understand the risks, research the specific contract, start with small positions, and consider seeking professional advice before investing.

This summary provides a basic understanding of futures trading. Remember, it's crucial to research and learn more before making any investment decisions.

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標籤

亞當理論, 交易, 台股, 投資, 獲利, 股價, 股市, 趨勢分析, 配股


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投資小叮嚀

順勢操作切記別跟市場做對

01

當股價站上成本線方可順勢加碼操作,切記不要加碼攤平

02

注意盤勢的量價關係,當出現新的型態務必重新規劃交易計畫

03

當股價跌破成本線或重要支撐點,務必調整手中持股,重新規劃交易

Faq

何謂量價關係

量,指的是一檔期貨商品單位時間的成交量,其中包含有日成交量,月成交量,年成交量等;價,指的是一檔期貨商品的價格,以收盤價為準,還有開盤價,最高價以及最低價。

何謂主力成本線

當股價在關鍵位置出現突破、跳空、長紅或是長黑時,且出現大額成交量時,可以視為主力將來的企圖,簡單來說就是商品價格在關鍵位置的平均價格。

何謂市場趨勢

市場的趨勢,就是市場當前正在運行的方向。

何謂量價結構

所謂的量能結構就是指在股票市場的成交量裡面所包含的投資者,在股票市場上大致可以區分為投資機構、官股法人、自營商、基金投資公司、大型投資人以及散戶等。

何謂交易計畫

一個完整的交易計劃內容包含以下幾個重點:交易周期、資金分配、進場時機、停損或是停利點。

何謂交易周期

所謂的交易周期主要區分為日線交易、週線交易、月線交易。三者區別在於交易周期時間的長短。

何謂資金分配

資金分配最重要的是能夠穩妥的降低投資的風險,投資首要的工作就是先求保本再追求獲利。

何謂進場時機

進場時機,通常依據主力成本線量能的表態後,明確出趨勢的方向才開始規劃。

停損設定的重要性

投資首要工作就是嚴格控制風險,規劃進場的同時也要明確地制定停損出場的時機,當局勢並未按照你的交易計劃同步運行時,立即執行,方能長期保持大賺小賠的獲利模式。

停利設定的重要性

本網站中一直強調絕不預設立場讓市場決定一切。我們在進場前所能夠做的就是規劃好自己的交易計劃並且確實執行,真實的商品市場裡面永遠存在著不可預知的未來與風險,沒有人能夠提前預知未來的走勢,順著當下投資市場的實際走勢才是我們最簡單也是最單純的操作方式。

如何調整持倉比例

持倉比例的多寡對於投資報酬率以及投資風險的高低,有著密不可分的關係,所以投資持倉的比例往往也是風險管理中重要的一環。如何去掌握持倉比例,首先可以依照自己內心的感覺去衡量,如果當前這筆投資金額會讓你覺得沉重,請你立刻停止加大持倉的部位。

何謂亞當交易守則

  • 賠錢的部位絕不要加碼「攤平」。
  • 買進或加碼操作時,絕不能不設判斷錯誤時的停損點。
  • 絕不要取消或移動出場點,除非是往你操作的方向移動。
  • 絕不要讓賠小錢演變成重大損失。情況不對立刻出場,保留資金,改日再戰。
  • 一次操作或一天之內絕不虧損超過 10%。
  • 別試著猜頭摸底,讓頭部和底部自己出現。
  • 別站在火車前面。如果大盤出現爆發性走勢,不要和它作對,除非有明顯的證據顯示已經開始轉向了(不是即將或是應該,而是已經轉向)。
  • 保持靈活度。請記住,你可能會錯,亞當理論也可能會錯,世界上任何東西都會偶爾出錯。要記住,亞當理論所討論的,是可能性高的事,不是絕對確定的事。
  • 虧損時,請出場。如果你一直虧損,請認賠出場,暫時遠離市場。讓情緒冷靜下來、讓頭腦恢復理智。
  • 請問問自己,是不是真的想在市場上賺錢,然後仔細聽聽你的答案。有些人的內心想要賠錢,或者只是想玩刺激的東西。請了解自己

參考資料

理財網

https://www.moneydj.com/kmdj/  

奇摩股市

https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/  

新書上市

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